Obama’s final State of the Union set for Tuesday night
Getty ImagesPresident Barack Obama delivers his final State of the Union address in a few days — and gets a chance to even a score.
If one includes Obama’s Feb. 24, 2009 address to a joint session of Congress (which looked and sounded like a State of the Union but technically wasn’t one), the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.72% has dropped after four of seven of the 44th president’s big speeches to the nation. As the table below shows, stocks have risen after three.
The table shows the Dow on the day after State of the Union addresses, and on the day after speeches to joint sessions of Congress that effectively served as replacements for the State of the Union — like Obama’s February 2009 speech. It uses data compiled by the WSJ Market Data Group going back to 1961.
As MarketWatch reported when Obama spoke last January, there are naturally other reasons markets move. On Jan. 28, 2000, for example, the Dow had its worst post-speech reaction, dropping 2.6%. That was the day after Bill Clinton’s final State of the Union address. At the time, the market was gripped by fears of Federal Reserve tightening. But the few stocks tied to Clinton, like large-cap drug stocks, actually rose.
Obama is scheduled to speak on Tuesday night. In his year-end news conference, the president said the country still has unfinished business and added, “In 2016 I’m going to leave it out all on the field.” He said he was optimistic about making progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement and said he wanted to work with Congress on criminal-justice reform.
| Day after State of the Union | President | Percentage change in Dow Jones Industrial Average |
| Wednesday, January 21, 2015 | Barack Obama | 0.22% |
| Wednesday, January 29, 2014 | Barack Obama | -1.19% |
| Wednesday, February 13, 2013 | Barack Obama | -0.26% |
| Wednesday, January 25, 2012 | Barack Obama | 0.64% |
| Wednesday, January 26, 2011 | Barack Obama | 0.07% |
| Thursday, January 28, 2010 | Barack Obama | -1.13% |
| Wednesday, February 25, 2009 | Barack Obama | -1.09% |
| Tuesday, January 29, 2008 | George W. Bush | 0.78% |
| Wednesday, January 24, 2007 | George W. Bush | 0.70% |
| Wednesday, February 1, 2006 | George W. Bush | 0.82% |
| Thursday, February 3, 2005 | George W. Bush | -0.03% |
| Wednesday, January 21, 2004 | George W. Bush | 0.90% |
| Wednesday, January 29, 2003 | George W. Bush | 0.27% |
| Wednesday, January 30, 2002 | George W. Bush | 1.50% |
| Wednesday, February 28, 2001 | George W. Bush | -1.33% |
| Friday, January 28, 2000 | William J. Clinton | -2.62% |
| Wednesday, January 20, 1999 | William J. Clinton | -0.21% |
| Wednesday, January 28, 1998 | William J. Clinton | 1.28% |
| Wednesday, February 5, 1997 | William J. Clinton | -1.27% |
| Wednesday, January 24, 1996 | William J. Clinton | 0.97% |
| Wednesday, January 25, 1995 | William J. Clinton | 0.23% |
| Wednesday, January 26, 1994 | William J. Clinton | 0.33% |
| Thursday, February 18, 1993 | William J. Clinton | -0.30% |
| Wednesday, January 29, 1992 | George H. W. Bush | -1.44% |
| Wednesday, January 30, 1991 | George H. W. Bush | 1.90% |
| Thursday, February 1, 1990 | George H. W. Bush | -0.17% |
| Friday, February 10, 1989 | George H. W. Bush | -1.59% |
| Tuesday, January 26, 1988 | Ronald Reagan | -1.33% |
| Wednesday, January 28, 1987 | Ronald Reagan | 0.60% |
| Wednesday, February 5, 1986 | Ronald Reagan | -0.01% |
| Thursday, February 7, 1985 | Ronald Reagan | 0.74% |
| Thursday, January 26, 1984 | Ronald Reagan | -0.18% |
| Wednesday, January 26, 1983 | Ronald Reagan | -0.39% |
| Wednesday, January 27, 1982 | Ronald Reagan | 0.14% |
| Thursday, February 19, 1981 | Ronald Reagan | -1.45% |
| Monday, January 19, 1981 | Jimmy Carter | -0.24% |
| Tuesday, January 22, 1980 | Jimmy Carter | -0.75% |
| Friday, January 26, 1979 | Jimmy Carter | 0.60% |
| Friday, January 20, 1978 | Jimmy Carter | -0.22% |
| Thursday, January 13, 1977 | Gerald R. Ford | 0.82% |
| Tuesday, January 20, 1976 | Gerald R. Ford | 0.65% |
| Thursday, January 16, 1975 | Gerald R. Ford | 0.36% |
| Thursday, January 31, 1974 | Richard Nixon | -0.79% |
| Monday, February 5, 1973 | Richard Nixon | -0.25% |
| Friday, January 21, 1972 | Richard Nixon | -0.31% |
| Monday, January 25, 1971 | Richard Nixon | 0.50% |
| Friday, January 23, 1970 | Richard Nixon | -1.34% |
| Wednesday, January 15, 1969 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 0.37% |
| Thursday, January 18, 1968 | Lyndon B. Johnson | -0.11% |
| Wednesday, January 11, 1967 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 1.03% |
| Thursday, January 13, 1966 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 0.18% |
| Tuesday, January 5, 1965 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 0.70% |
| Thursday, January 9, 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 0.27% |
| Tuesday, January 15, 1963 | John F. Kennedy | -0.06% |
| Friday, January 12, 1962 | John F. Kennedy | 0.15% |
| Tuesday, January 31, 1961 | John F. Kennedy | -0.38% |
